Della rivolta in Egitto i telegiornali stanno parlando in lungo e in largo. Tuttavia ci sarebbero molte cose da dire in proposito. Si potrebbe ad esempio fare qualche considerazione sulla realpolitik , che obbliga i leader di mezzo Mondo (compreso il nostro premier - ma si ricordi che l'Italia è uno dei principali partner commerciali dell'Egitto) a vezzeggiare quello che, se non avesse fatto gli interessi dell'occidente per decenni, verrebbe definito un dittatore e un tiranno. O della censura totale di Internet attuata dal governo del Cairo, soluzione repressiva a cui nessuno era mai giunto prima. Argomenti interessanti, ma di cui non voglio occuparmi oggi. Quello che più mi interessa, alla In light of this revolt and others that are investing in the Maghreb, is to analyze the reasons for the crisis.
do not claim to possess the truth and not even a part of it. Behind the clashes in Egypt there are complex reasons for socio-economic and geo-political can not analyze in depth, but to explain the uprising in the simplistic way in which it is presented by the media is wrong and misleading. Revolutions do not occur until things are so bad as to justify.
The question therefore is: why things were going so bad in Egypt?
The question therefore is: why things were going so bad in Egypt?
Take a look at this graph, obtained by using the 'Export Databrowser Energy and based on data from BP Statistical Review :
The picture is clear enough, but there wasting few words. Now for a couple of decades, the Egyptian oil production is declining. In contrast, consumption of crude oil continues to rise. From oil exporting country, Egypt is turning into an importing country, losing an important source of income and an incentive for industry to aggravate a situation that is nothing short of financial disaster.
According to the CIA World Factbook , economic reforms launched by the Government during the period 2004-2008 in order to attract foreign investment have had limited success due to the global economic downturn. With a public debt equal to 80, 5% of GDP, more than 20% of the population below the poverty line , runaway inflation (12.8% in 2010) and an unemployment rate of 9.7 %, the Egyptian situation on the eve of the crisis was far from stable.
for moderation in food prices for decades the Egyptian government is using subsidies . In 1977 the announcement of economic measures that would lead to rising prices of basic commodities sparked an uprising (the so-called bread riots ) in that killed dozens of people. The government the time was forced to retrace his steps. But since then the situation has only worsened. In 2008 the cry Aish! Aish! (pane! bread!) Million Egyptians assaulted the furnaces throughout the country. 15 people died and returned to the crisis, at least for a while '. Once considered a
the granary of the Roman Empire, Egypt is now one of the largest importers of wheat in the world (in 2010 the Minister of Agriculture Amin Abaza said that the country imports 40% of food and 60% the grain). The population pressure has continued to grow unabated, among other things, removing the first land available for agriculture, already threatened by severe water stress ( Egypt is in competition with Sudan and Ethiopia to the exploitation of the Nile Basin , a situation that makes the whole unstable region).
Lacking important sources of revenue as the export of oil (partially offset in recent years by a increase in exports of natural gas and other income such as those arising from the transit of ships in Suez Canal, where a hypothetical closing deal a further blow to the economy Egypt) and having to face an increase in the price of wheat ( in 2010 production has declined, partly due to the heat wave and drought that hit Russia) leaving unchanged the policy of subsidies, which is now one of the pillars of the Egyptian economy, it becomes increasingly difficult and untenable.
for moderation in food prices for decades the Egyptian government is using subsidies . In 1977 the announcement of economic measures that would lead to rising prices of basic commodities sparked an uprising (the so-called bread riots ) in that killed dozens of people. The government the time was forced to retrace his steps. But since then the situation has only worsened. In 2008 the cry Aish! Aish! (pane! bread!) Million Egyptians assaulted the furnaces throughout the country. 15 people died and returned to the crisis, at least for a while '. Once considered a
the granary of the Roman Empire, Egypt is now one of the largest importers of wheat in the world (in 2010 the Minister of Agriculture Amin Abaza said that the country imports 40% of food and 60% the grain). The population pressure has continued to grow unabated, among other things, removing the first land available for agriculture, already threatened by severe water stress ( Egypt is in competition with Sudan and Ethiopia to the exploitation of the Nile Basin , a situation that makes the whole unstable region).
add a corrupt, authoritarian and oppressive, a gap between rich and poor widening and well-being that can not be seen except on paper and in the 5-star hotels along the Nile (Egypt's GDP in 2010 grew by 5.3%, one of the highest rates in the region, but insufficient to compensate for population growth) and that explains the reasons for the crisis! Egypt is a country in shambles .
Unfortunately, and this is where I want to end up, the situation of Egyptian è tutt'altro che isolata.
La produzione di petrolio ha già raggiunto il picco in diverse nazioni e, a livello globale, sta stagnando dal 2005. Nonostante le previsioni ottimistiche (o miopi) di chi sostiene che, grazie a tecnologie all'avanguardia, sarà possibile proseguire l'estrazione di greggio a prezzi economicamente vantaggiosi fino alla fine del secolo, ritengo più probabile che l'aumento della domanda di petrolio e altri combustibili fossili, soprattutto a causa dell'ingresso nel mercato di economie emergenti e avide di risorse, sarà impossibile da soddisfare in seguito all'esaurimento delle riserve primarie e più facilmente accessibili. Lo scatenarsi di conflitti in areas such as Afghanistan and Iraq is, in my opinion, a symptom of a race to seize control of strategic resources as long as possible.
An increase in demand and a stagnant (or decreased) production are resulting in higher prices. Not only oil, it is logical to expect, but also the food.
Look at this chart, which compares the FAO Food Price Index with the index Brent oil:
Notice any similarities? Let me remind you that oil is used directly in agricultural production (tractors are diesel) and indirectly due to storage and transportation. Hence the strong similarity between the two graphs.
If we add population growth, the spread of western lifestyle and the consequent increased consumption of meat (for whose production requires considerable amounts of grain and water) and a criminal use of agricultural resources for biofuel production, we get a demand for corn and other primary food resources continues to grow.
On the other hand is not expected in the coming years, a decisive increase in agricultural production compared to that initiated by Green Revolution in the 70s, which is why prices food are destined to rise even more.
This price increase, combined with a reduction in income and purchasing power due to the economic downturn, is untenable for a large part of the world population living below the poverty line. The crisis first hit for the economically weaker and socially backward nations, but also the less privileged classes of the richest nations. For more inflation triggers a feedback mechanism that feeds the economic crisis. Having to commit more financial resources to purchase basic necessities, the lower classes waive the purchase of secondary importance. There is thus a contraction consumption, which in an economic system based on GDP is the well-being than a disaster.
I fear that the riots of bread will become a standard for years to come .
I fear that the riots of bread will become a standard for years to come .
In a closely interconnected world as one in which we live, which continues to base its operation on the use of fossil fuels, where the competitors to seize control of resources are becoming more numerous and aggressive, and where the economic culture dominant base their decisions on short-term forecasts the future looks gray. The
Report on Limits to Growth commissioned by the MIT Club of Rome published in 1972 and was mocked and scientists warned that policy-makers on the risks posed by unlimited growth made by the end of Cassandra. Maybe someone should give them a listen. But this, as they say, is another story.
Report on Limits to Growth commissioned by the MIT Club of Rome published in 1972 and was mocked and scientists warned that policy-makers on the risks posed by unlimited growth made by the end of Cassandra. Maybe someone should give them a listen. But this, as they say, is another story.
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